ITEM:	PUBLIC HEARINGS
10.	RECEIVE WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR PERIOD OF MAY 1, 2004 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 2005
Meeting Date:		May 17, 2004	Budgeted: N/A
Staff Contact:		Darby Fuerst	Program/Line Item No.: N/A
			Cost Estimate: N/A
General Counsel Approval: N/A
Committee Recommendation: N/A
CEQA Compliance: N/A

SUMMARY: Regulation X of the Monterey Peninsula Water Management District (District) Rules and Regulations requires that a water supply summary forecast report be compiled annually to analyze the status of water supply and demand within the District. This report quantifies rainfall, runoff, and storage conditions within the District as of May 1, 2004, and forecasts the amount of water that will be available for the upcoming water year. This item is for informational purposes only; no Board action is required at this time.

Physical Water Availability: As of May 1, 2004, usable water storage within the Monterey Peninsula Water Resources System (MPWRS) totaled 31,180 acre-feet or 97% of maximum storage capacity. A map of the MPWRS is included as Exhibit 10-A. A breakdown of total storage by reservoir and aquifer is shown in Exhibit 10-B. As shown, usable reservoir storage totals 1,550 acre-feet and usable aquifer storage totaled 29,630 acre-feet. In addition, a summary of other water-supply related conditions within the MPWRS -- rainfall, runoff, and number of adult steelhead recorded at San Clemente Dam, and Cal-Am monthly diversions from the Carmel River and Seaside Ground Water Basins relative to limits set by the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) and District -- are shown in Exhibit 10-C and 10-D.

The amount of carryover storage that is needed to meet the projected water needs within the District for the remainder of Water Year (WY) 2004 and all of WY 2005 is shown in Exhibit 10-E. These projections include the water needs of both Cal-Am customers and non-Cal-Am water users within the District who rely on water from the MPWRS. As shown, the projected water demand for the remainder of WY 2004 is 9,610 acre-feet. Similarly, the projected demand for WY 2005 is 18,197 acre-feet. This projection is based on the maximum annual production amount for Cal-Am directed by the SWRCB in Order No. WR 95-10 (15,285 acre-feet) and the production that was reported for non Cal-Am users in WY 2004 (2,912 acre-feet).

As shown in Exhibit 10-E, the total amount of water needed to meet the projected water demand for the remainder of WY 2004 and all of WY 2005 is 27,807 acre-feet. Given the current usable storage estimate of 31,180 acre-feet, there is sufficient stored water in the MPWRS to meet the projected water needs for the remainder of WY 2004 and begin WY 2005 with a full year’s supply in reserve. This is consistent with the District drought protection goal approved by the Board in August 1993.

It should also be noted that this approach is conservative in that it is based entirely on storage and does not include any allowance for surface and subsurface inflows that are expected to occur. Therefore, based on the physical availability of water, no additional water demand reductions are required at this time. It should be noted, however, that this analysis does not incorporate environmental considerations such as effects on riparian and aquatic resources, which are outside of the scope of this physical availability analysis.

RECOMMENDATION: The Board should receive the water supply forecast for the May 1, 2004 through September 30, 2005 period.

IMPACTS ON STAFF/RESOURCES: District staff currently tracks and reports on water production and water supply conditions on a monthly basis; no additional impacts are anticipated related to this item.

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